Just running through the charts. Both my NYSE and NASDAQ
High Low charts gave weak buys today.
I ran the charts earlier tonight and I couldn't ask for
better looking charts indicating a reversal. Everything
pretty much hit my targets and then formed hammers. What
didn't form a hammer made tweezer bottoms and most did it perfectly on supports to where I would be sure we are going
north from here for a while. However there is always a however, the SUNW news was horrible. They couldn't have said anything much worse. After hours didn't look that bad but what concerns me now is how tomorrow's sticks will look
compared to today's nice reversal patterns. If we make a
lower low on the key techs and/or the NDX it could negate all the good we did today.
My plan is to play it by ear but I will likely still buy if I can get good entries in my kid's accounts. For my own
account, I don't know, it will all depend on my entries and
how the internals look. We may be in a situation where
there isn't much bad news left for a while. CSCO, EMC, SUNW, INTC etc have all warned. All that is left is QCOM but that stock is more like a religion than a stock so even though the news releases out of China, Korea, the Euro zone etc have already warned for them, they will likely warn but the kings of denial will just blow it off and buy more.
QCOM just irritates the heck out of me, it is like MU. No matter how bad things are, hope springs eternal in that bunch. When that one drops, that will be the long term
bottom to buy.
Not much to say, the charts looks beautiful for a bottom here short term but the SUNW news made it not a slam dunk like it would have been. I still am biased long now though
as I think this morning's drop may have been it.
Top 25 Weighted NDX as of yesterday's close...
Symbol % Of Index
MSFT 7.49
INTC 5.26
CSCO 4.68
QCOM 4.67
ORCL 3.89
JDSU 3.08
AMGN 2.46
VRTS 2.1
SUNW 2.01
SEBL 1.95
CIEN 1.76
IMNX 1.68
LLTC 1.61
MXIM 1.59
GMST 1.56
NXTL 1.51
VSTR 1.51
DELL 1.44
AMAT 1.42
CHKP 1.4
XLNX 1.37
CMCSK 1.32
WCOM 1.19
02/22 18:59
Japan Long-Term Rating Cut by S&P; First in 26 Years (Update3)
By Walden Siew
Tokyo, Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Japan lost its triple-A
credit rating from Standard & Poor's, which said swelling government debt, bad loans and slow progress on reform will hobble the economy.
Japan's long-term local and foreign currency debt ratings were cut to ``AA+'' from ``AAA''. The cut brings Standard &
Poor's rating in line with Moody's Investors Service, which in November 1998 slashed Japan's foreign-currency
credit rating one notch to ``Aa1''.
The move, the first cut by S&P of Japan's ratings since it was assigned the highest level in 1975, pushed the yen lower. A lower credit rating is the price Japan's paying for relying on government spending to keep the economy growing. While the U.S. is reducing its debt, Japan continues to borrow record sums. Japan became the world's largest debtor nation in 1999.
``There's a problem in Japan in terms of government debt and that's going to be harder and harder to reverse,'' said Tony Meer, senior economist at Deustche Bank AG in Sydney. ``The government seems to be slow to implement reforms.''
The yen fell as low as 117.16 to the dollar from 116.40 to
the dollar after the cut was announced. It recently traded
at 117.13 to the dollar.
The downgrade ``is clearly a negative (for the yen), and the market is going to take it lower,'' said Guillermo Estebanez, a currency strategist with Banc of America Securities in San Francisco. He expects the yen to fall to
125 to the dollar by May.
Rising Debt
Government debt will reach 642 trillion yen ($5.5
trillion), equal to 129 percent of gross domestic product, by March next year, and Japan is also grappling with an aging society and shrinking population that will strain its pension and health systems.
S&P cut the rating because of ``a growing realization that
policymakers in Japan were unable to take prompt action for the country's fiscal malaise,'' said John Chambers, deputy
head of the sovereign rating group at S&P.
Most of the debt was run up by spending on roads, bridges
and other public works in a bid to pull the economy out of a decade of stop-start growth. There's been little to show for it -- the economy shrank 0.6 percent in the third quarter last year, the most recently reported figure, and
has contracted in 15 of 43 quarters since the start of 1990.
Japan's government debt will probably rise to 165 percent
of GDP by the middle of the decade, S&P said in a
statement. ``Japan would benefit by redirecting its
spending mix away from poorly targeted public works,'' S&P said.
Still, the economy needs the government's support, S&P said.
``Japan can only slowly withdraw its fiscal stimulus without aborting any economic recovery,'' the rating agency said.
Bad Loans
The slow progress in writing off bad loans at banks is also holding back the economy, S&P said. It estimates bad loans being carried by banks are about twice the 31 trillion yen reported, on top of the 67 trillion yen that's already been
written off.
``Banks will be unable to increase domestic credit materially over the next five years and will therefore fail to assist Japan in attaining'' 2 percent annual economic growth, S&P said.
S&P affirmed Japan's `A-1+' short-term local and foreign currency sovereign credit ratings. The outlook on all the ratings is stable.
In September, Moody's Investors Service cut Japan's
domestic- currency credit rating one notch to ``Aa2,''
citing the mounting debt in the government's efforts to encourage economic growth.
Japan had already lost its top-notch Moody's ``Aaa'' rating
in November 1998, and the September cut left Japan on par with Portugal and Spain.
quote.bloomberg.com
======================================
The SUNW Bomb
www2.marketwatch.com
From: Les Horowitz Thursday, Feb 22, 2001 8:12 PM
Chip market to show virtually no growth in 2001
electronicstimes.com |
