Hi John, RE: "it seems to have given you some level of piece of mind in this market."
Not quite peace of mind. A recession would not bother me, but stagflation would - it robs investors.
RE: "The experts, including the Fed govenors, don't seem to think it's a problem, and they are usually the first to scream (after GV)."
GV is on top of the ball. Where is our thread's stagflation expert?
If energy prices remain under control (and it appears they may be, but who knows), I assume the potential for stagflation is very unlikely.
RE: "I guess I'm still trying to formulate an opinion on how bad things are and how long the downturn will last."
Let's see... Nasdaq was at 252 in Jan 1985, projecting out at 11.5% (Dow's est historical average), yields approximately Nasdaq 1600 in 2001. Of course, over the long-term, I'm expecting INTC to yield better than the Dow.
Regards,
Amy J |
