Qualcomm predicts three-year delay for W-CDMA
From the451.com, a pay for site but worthwhile. I wont go on about some Qcommies narrow mindedness and blinkered vision. Anyway enjoy....
Qualcomm predicts three-year delay for W-CDMA
Dawn Hayes
GMT Feb 22, 2001, 05:56 PM | ET Feb 22, 2001, 12:56 PM | PT Feb 22, 2001, 09:56 AM
London - Irwin Jacobs, president of Qualcomm, was so eager to predict that production of W-CDMA (wideband code division multiple access) equipment will be delayed by as much as three years, that he hardly touched his smoked-salmon pillows over a lunch in London this week. He had flown there straight from the Cannes GSM Congress, where Qualcomm had cheekily borrowed some spectrum from the French military to show off its rival CDMA2000 technology.
Delegates were surprised at Qualcomm's appearance in a sea of network operators that have committed to upgrading their GSM digital mobile networks to W-CDMA technology for third-generation services. But Jacobs had gotten wind of delays among W-CDMA manufacturers and took the opportunity to spread the CDMA2000 gospel to operators, knowing that they will feel the hot breath of the debt markets on their necks if there is any delay to implementation of 3G services by next year. Many of those network providers have paid fantastical sums to win those licenses – there is no financial room for spectrum to lie fallow.
"Until now, this was an industry that could do no wrong – you could write any business plan and comfortably exceed it," said Jacobs. "Now we're in for a change – from 'everything is coming up roses' to 'there are a few weeds out there that need attending to.'"
Jacobs predicts that W-CDMA infrastructure and handsets will not be available in volume until 2005 – three years later than expected. That would leave many European mobile network operators forced to re-evaluate their commitment to W-CDMA. Well, he would say that, wouldn't he? Qualcomm – the darling of the investment community since wireless emerged as a miracle money-spinner in the late 1990s – has much riding on CDMA2000 technology being adopted as widely as possible. Jacobs begs to differ. "Nobody will be happier than us if W-CDMA appears on time next year," he said.
Qualcomm owns important patents for both CDMA and W-CDMA, both of which will become standards in 3G wireless networks. It makes around 90% of the chips that run CDMA networks – most of its sales last year came from selling chipsets to mobile handset manufacturers and from royalties it receives from patents. But Qualcomm desperately wants to halt the progress of W-CDMA, because it provides a smaller percentage of revenue overall. But European network operators plumped for W-CDMA to gain economies of scale.
Certainly, it would not be surprising if W-CDMA is later to arrive than scheduled. The same problem has blighted almost every other mobile phone network technology to date, including GSM and GPRS. But Qualcomm is a company that has fought hard to secure its place in the wireless world, and it's not about to let it slip through its fingers.
It designed CDMA to use radio spectrum three times more sparingly than rival systems while at the same time offering better reliability. With 13% of the global mobile market, CDMA is in third place, behind TDMA and GSM. But as 3G networks come on stream, it is showing signs of much faster growth. CDMA, which is now among the international standards for 3G technology, is based on packet technology, so it's good at carrying data services, which are forecast to be the big growth area for next-generation mobile networks.
CDMA2000 gives operators twice the capacity for voice traffic, Jacobs says. In cases where only voice traffic is being transmitted, capacity is improved by 30%, he adds, compared with W-CDMA, which offers three times the capacity that second-generation GSM networks can provide. The problem is that European licenses have been awarded to work to the W-CDMA standard. Jacobs says that the contracts allow operators to use alternative technology in the case of delays. |
