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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures

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To: John Pitera who wrote (1246)	2/23/2001 10:07:01 AM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) of 12410

Morning John, Euro weekly chart has a median line off the April lows right on todays price 0.9055 and suggests it will move strongly from this level. Need to watch the action off this area. Charts suggest a test of .95-96 and reach parity with the dollar some time this year. >>what does your bean chart look like to you??<< Weekly Bean chart suggests a solid short if 450.50 is broken. Monthly has already broken...low 456.25 and a solid short. Monthly charts suggest time has not run-out (as in the wheat), and will take another 6 months before falling trend is halted. Soybeans followed cleanly a Gann 22.5° line all the way from 900.00 to 400.00 until late 1999. The 45° line is 11 months in the future off the 1997 high. (Wheat's 45° is right here in January). Fundamentals: "SOYBEANS: Massive fund buying (about 4000 contracts) pushed March soybeans higher early, then prices backtracked, indicating that there aren't any bona fide supply concerns despite hot, dry weather in parts of Argentina this week and modest harvest delays in Brazil. There's certainly room for more short covering, but we don't think rallies will hold and prices are likely to head lower eventually in anticipation of huge US acreage. As mentioned before, the last thing this market needs is a spring rally to trigger even more plantings." I read that Starlink and MadCow has sifted farmers attentions away from feed grains and are confused on what to plant next year. It's possible that an abundant soybean crop will appear in the fall keeping prices low. Also there's a Mega-crop of South American soybeans. "WHEAT: March wheat's decline despite another rally in soybeans indicated this market is in a bear phase, dominated by big Australian production, improving US HRW prospects and sluggish US exports. Prices are likely to work lower, although we'd expect at least a brief rebound from 260 support." Other reading suggests that despite low stocks world wide there's no concern, and farmers may turn to wheat increasing acreage and supplies. Wheat ran out of time some weeks ago then crossed another measure in December and finally the 45° line in January. Wheat also followed the 22.5° line cleanly. Looks like the weekly forks are downward pointed with one at 260.00, 250.00, 230.00 technically suggesting weakness and wheat wil see 250.00 even 230.00. Volume on the monthly charts is also very interesting. So the purchase of a call as suggested is early at best if not wrong. However, I believe the time element presents the possibility of a "Surprise Factor" entering the wheat arena.

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