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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting
QCOM 176.00+0.4%3:59 PM EST

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To: saukriver who wrote (7681)2/23/2001 10:35:46 AM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (3) of 196875
 
Does anyone see any weakness in the fundamental that CMDA2000 and 1x work and W-CDMA is merely planned?

Yes, I see weakness in that. Just because a technology works long before another one works doesn't mean that the customers are going to rush out and buy the one that works. There are too many factors involved to narrow the equation down to such a simplicity.

If we agree that Dr. J has long worried that any versions of CDMA might be delayed, it's difficult to imagine that we shouldn't be at least concerned that W-CDMA appears to be delayed. If W-CDMA was happening now, anyone investing in Qualcomm probably believes that would be good for Qualcomm. Lacking a workable W-CDMA solution, that's not as good for Qualcomm as it might otherwise be.

I'm not ignoring that Qualcomm has alternatives in place that the customers could adopt in lieu of workable W-CDMA solutions. Qualcomm is my second largest holding. Yet I'm not blind to the idea that the more W-CDMA is delayed, the more difficult it is for Qualcomm to gain maximum benefit from its CDMA-based solutions.

There is a tendency at times for a lot of people in this thread to turn good news into great news and to turn negative news into good news. I think Dr. J's solicitation of Europe in the context of a delayed W-CDMA is an example of the latter. I believe Dr. J's solicitation of Europe is perfect timing for many reasons I won't bore anyone with, but it would be far better for Qualcomm if he (we) had the luxury that he was making those presentations in the context of viable, working W-CDMA solutions.

Just my opinion.

--Mike Buckley
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