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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.500

+1.9%

Dec 19 9:30 AM EST

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To: Eric L who wrote (9426)	2/23/2001 12:13:45 PM
From: Terrapin	Read Replies (1) of 34857

It sounds like the cat is out of the bag as far as 3G WCDMA/CDMA2000. The timetables were based on the absolute best scenarios possible. At the time it seemed like a good time but we are no longer wearing those rose-colored glasses. When we were discussing GPRS I thought we all agreed that broad acceptance of this technology would relieve some of the time pressure on 3G roll-out. And now GPRS is being slightly delayed (we can all assign different reasons to this). The possibility remains that Jacobs was presenting the worst case in order to sell his CDMA2000. Therefore his estimate might be considered the outside line. In addition to that I find the argument about the lack of a killer app for 3G very convincing. I cannot think of why I would pay hundreds of dollars (likely per year) for this type of connectivity. However, I CAN see how I could use a low data-rate GPRS system while travelling or shopping or paying bills. Only after I have spent a few years with this type of technology do I think I would consider stepping up to whatever 3G could offer. I still think Nokia is doing the right thing by gearing up for GPRS. The only threat that I see right now is defections from the GSM-GPRS-WCDMA upgrade path due to the delays. I believe this to be a fairly significant opportunity for qcom to gain some 3G market share. If the decisions were based solely on technology they may do better but since there are many more variables it will not be a slam dunk. I forget who made the comments about qcom discussion on this thread but I wanted to weigh in on the matter. I welcome any Nokia- or general wireless- related qcom discussion on this thread now that I know I can go over to Puck's moderated Nokia thread. I think most qcommers would agree that both threads are better off for it. IMHO. Just some thoughts, Terrapin

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