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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (3321)2/23/2001 1:31:13 PM
From: John Pitera   of 33421
 
I've got the major uptrend line in the NASD @ 2050 or so. 2000 should be psychological support as well.

-----Next week's economic indicators are led by consumer confidence in importance. Greenspan's emphasis on confidence as a leading indicator for the economy leaves it as a key policy guide as the 7% Feb drop in the Michigan sentiment index clearly sets the tone. The Chicago PMI and NAPM later in the week are expected to edge higher but remain at levels consistent with the sectoral recession. Strong retail sales will lift January personal consumption as durable goods orders also reflect the downturn in investment and the dire straits in the factory sector-----

---------The federal funds futures market is pricing in much stronger odds for another 50 bp policy ease at the March 20 meeting. The 5.26% effective rate the March contract is pricing suggests a move before the FOMC meeting date as the rate more than builds in a 50 bp ease given the late timing of the meeting. The April contract prices funds at 4.99% with odds slightly over 100% for the 50 bp move. Some of the hype which rebuilt expectations for a third consecutive 50 bp ease came from an analysis firm which times an intermeeting move with the release of the Conference Board's consumer confidence index on Feb 27.
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