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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 652.56-1.5%4:00 PM EST

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To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (70205)2/23/2001 1:34:40 PM
From: Wayners  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Market is at mercy of AG.

Yep.

And don't you think AG is at the mercy of PPI and CPI?

Not really. AG doesn't always trust the numbers he's given. If they don't make sense to him he ignores them. Currently we're watching Consumer Confidence and NAPM report next week. Consumer confidence is highly correlated to the stock market. AG has already stated in speech testimony that they are closely watching consumer confidence. He will have those numbers a day or two in advance of the rest of us.

Well the Economy is not going too bad considering 4.2%
unemployment


Lagging economic indicator. 4.2% is also up from the recent 3.9%.
So in fact, AG may want to wait for next CPI/PPI before
considering any rate cut at all, considering
the previous unexpected increase in CPI/PPI.


Federal Funds futures are still pricing in a sligtly more than 50bp cut even after the CPI and PPI numbers. I wouldn't bet against the federal funds rate futures traders. They know the Fed.
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