George, i do not think we have the conditions ripe for a black Monday, if you remember, the Friday before the October 27th (87) had 150 or so dow points drop, then pretty close to a record, this was in the wake of fed tightening moves (which they resumed early in 1988), here we had a much smaller (potential, I should say) drop of about 200 points on a Dow four times higer, after the fed's have already made two reductions. Crashes a la 87 are rare, and I do not think (short of a major financial accident) the Fed would have been moved. We have the Turkish situation and that potential hedge fund, but that can be handled with liquidity injections (which the feds have been doing, already too much, IMHO), I do not think these would have been causes. We'll know soon enough.
Zeev |
