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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: Nancy who wrote (1028)2/23/2001 8:59:07 PM
From: Terry Whitman  Read Replies (2) of 52237
 
Another way to predict fed moves is simply a mean of previous moves. When the fed starts tightening or easing, there is a 'normal' or mean number of moves, and a mean total percentage.

When the fed began it's last tightening cycle- I calculated that the mean no. of moves in a tightening cycle by the fed over the last 15 years was 7 raises. It turned out to be accurate for the last tightening cycle. The mean move is 1/4 pt.

I have not figured the avg. number of eases, but I would guess it is close to 7 also. That would suggest we have several more to go. At least 3 more eases, and possibly as many as 5. Half pt. eases are more unusual, so the odds are for probably less than 7 if several of them are half pointers.

It is a small sample of data, but since it covers the entire Greenspan Fed, I think it is the best set of data to mine.

Thanks for posting the article on calculating the rate predictions.

Regards,
TW
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