MW, i posted this chart several days ago on mdd
impristine.com
the extreme reading on jdsu put/calls at the top (a nice representative of the crew -g-), i supposed then that the bottom would look somewhat like the reverse, where the bullz give up all hope, like the bears gave up all hope at the top.
i don't think we are there yet.
recently on this thread i compared the tech stock mania of 99-00 to the oil service stock mania of 97.
at the trough in oil stocks, an oil sheik was quoted that oil was going to 5 bucks, extreme bearish sentiment.
now recently we had some similar sentiment out of nortel and cisco, but this parabolic in techs dwarfs the oil service stock mania of 97 (remember the worldwide econony was going to go ballistic because of worldwide capitalism and every world citizen would need a quart of pennnzoil, a compaq and a coke -g-)
i think we will have to see many more tech ceo's throw in the towel and get bearish at the bottom.
we are now at spx level near the october 99 bottom, were rydex ursa bear fund had more assets than nova bull fund, NOT NOW, after todays churning nova bull is 351, ursa is 239.
the readings on vix, put/calls and tick, indicate we may be in an area of st bottom,
but still, the big fundamental picture, is that most of these high p/e companies are in a period of contraction, lowering estimates, lowering guidance and gapping down on those announcements, while most market players are looking for a bottom.
quite the opposite of the bull trend. |
