| wrt #3, I just don't see the logic. Ant forced selling would occur at a loss, and therefore not trigger a taxable event. If selling at a gain was done to counter forced losses, there will most likely be no tax consequence, as gains would likely offset losses. Only winning positions trigger a tax event. Not paying enough in installment only imposes a penalty (no big deal really!). For those who exercised options at the high, and held through the decline, there will be AMT consequences, but those will be taken care of over time. IMO, the big hit will be lower gov't surplus due to lower cap gains. Therefore, lower tax cut package should be anticipated. Furthermore, any positive effects on the economy expected from tax cuts become questionable, if the tax cuts are not meaningful. However, if employment remains high, I expect the lows will not be so far below, but if unemployment rises, the bottom is a long way off. If we maintain high employment numbers the market will just grind sideways, with bouts of volatility. |
