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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: jim_p who wrote (220)	2/24/2001 2:33:31 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (1) of 23153

jim_p RE: <<With both oil price uncertainty and market uncertainty, I would stay clear of all oil and gas investments until we have a better picture.>> That's probably good advice but I wonder if we aren't overlooking the national security considerations in the probable Bush admin agenda. I suspect that osx stocks have a long way to run, although maybe not in a straight line. I have two basic reasons for this thinking. The first we have discussed many times and that is that even with lower oil prices there is still plenty of incentive to find and develop new sources of oil and gas. The second is one that we have only touched upon. It appears to me that this admin will consider the finding and development of non-opec sources of energy, whether fossil fuels or other sources, a national security priority. Part of that policy would seem to me to include a substantial increase in exploration and production encouraged by tax incentives or some type of incentive that will keep the osx companies busy. I think this is something that we should have been doing in the past and that we need in order to lessen the energy stranglehold of opec. I don't see the osx companies lacking for work over the next 2-3 years. In these times when profits might be hard to find elsewhere, I think the risk reward there is decent. I have about 30% cash, 30% osx and the rest in small cap tech, biotech and a little E&P. My cash and margin are waiting through the "not yet" era till the "now" era. I use the term "era" in deference to Kollmh's post that it may take YEARS for tech to recover. Do any brave souls have any thoughts on why it may or may not take years? Any scenarios for a short term sustained recovery vs a long term malaise? Ed

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