ild, I'll be the first to admit, I am basically an optimist. last year, I expected the market drop to get to "only" 2950, and I was off by a good 600 Naz points. So yes, my 4200 is a little optimistic. I do, however, use intermediate check-points, and this figure just help me in laying out the "broad" road map for the next 12 months or so. I am also assuming that the economy will have improved (or at least the prospects), and that this year we avoid a real recession. I may be wrong with that assumption, but i got to chose economic assumptions (GDP growth, employment, etc.) to build my model. I have factored in a GDP growth in excess of 2.1% for the whole year (just the same growth the feds are now targeting), that means that the fourth quarter will be a 3.2% plus growth, when the market see these numbers in January, they may start and get exuberant, and by April, the exuberance should crest (possibly with a helping hand from the Feds), but the crest might very well be around the intermediate tops of the second half last year (a double top at around 4300). Of course, if we get into a recession this year, my top target does not go much above the 3150 area, still a nice 50% from the bottom, and that should lead SNDK by next April to the $40 or so area. Still a good buy around $20 (unless you think that Larry is right and we will see $10, then $20 is expensive <g>).
Zeev |
