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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs

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To: ahhaha who wrote (1172)	2/24/2001 3:40:37 PM
From: Elsewhere	Read Replies (3) of 24758

Where goest Dow? I doubt there will be a major DJIA retreat. The NASDAQ fall is a hangover after extreme Y2K spending and fading Net hype which hasn't affected non-tech Dow components much. The median earnings yield (5.88%) is higher than 10-year yields (5.09%), so no overvaluation according to AG's favorite yardstick. I have appended a list of PE ratios 2001e of all Dow components. There are only few companies which seem to be overvalued: KO, DIS, GE, HD, WMT. It will take years for KO, DIS, GE to lose their cult status. The retailers look most vulnerable to me if the decline in consumer sentiment leads to a decline in spending. [Posted with all the obvious implicit disclaimers/precautions such as: - What's the use of PE as a valuation tool? - The "E" sometimes changes quickly. - Growth/PEG is not considered.] PE Tick 01 Comment ------------------------------- T 53 Won't fall much further AA 13 AXP 17 BA 14 CAT 11 C 14 KO 28 High valuation for decades DIS 46 Vulnerable DD 15 EK 9 XOM 20 GE 27 Too high but Welch factor GM 11 HWP 18 HD 27 Too high HON 12 Acquired by GE IBM 19 INTC 22 IP 11 JNJ 22 MCD 17 MRK 22 MSFT 24 MMM 19 JPM 11 MO 10 PG 21 SBC 17 UTX 17 WMT 28 Too high Median 17 Data source: interactive.wsj.com

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