CIR Research has just released a new report on Optical Components. [Brochure arrived on Friday.]
cir-inc.com
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In its new report on the optical components business CIR points to three especially attractive growth opportunities within the optical components sector:
Optical Switching Components.
CIR believes that service providers will begin to make "significant deployments" of optical crossconnects during the next 12 month and this will generate significant revenues for optical switching components manufacturers. These manufacturers will also see their business boosted by demand for their products for optical add/drop multiplexing and protection switching applications. However, CIR's new report warns that MEMS, which has emerged as the market leading technology for optical switching, will increasingly be challenged by integrated optical solutions from components and sub-systems vendors such as Trellis Photonics and Optical Switch Corporation. CIR projects that as a result of the new trends in optical switching the $247 million U.S. optical switching component and subsystems market will turn into a $2 billion market by 2004.
Tunable Lasers.
A second area of opportunity pointed out in OPTICAL COMPONENTS MARKETS: 2000-2004 is the tunable laser market. Tunable lasers are the latest generation of light sources that permit frequency tuning. Using tunable lasers can help service providers cut down on their laser inventories and provide improved fault and provisioning management. Tunable lasers also hold out the prospect of novel ways of doing all-optical switching and CIR believes that this versatility will lead to the U.S. market for tunable lasers growing from $5 million this year to $1.2 billion by 2004. This is an area that is already being exploited by Nortel and Lucent, but is also an area where innovative start-ups, such as Iolon, appear. CIR says it expects to see more such start-ups appear over the next 12 months.
Optical Connectors.
Optical connectors are low-tech compared with optical switches and tunable lasers. However, CIR believes that there will be considerable opportunities for both industry giants such as Tyco and smaller companies as the result of the move towards DWDM and all-optical equipment generally. More optics means more connectors. At the same time, the optical equipment industry is looking to build systems with smaller footprints and, as a result, is in a quest for ever smaller connectors. CIR believes that, while $150 million is being spent in the U.S. on optical connectors for telecommunications equipment, this figure will spiral up to $1 billion by 2004.
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Raining here in my corner of the planet. I'm told a bigger storm's on the way. An event that will make headlines if it materializes.
BTW, do you remember CIR's ADSL predictions back in 1996-97? If memory serves correctly, Robert Nolan had the lowest numbers and most negative projections overall. Turns out he was right. I hope he's as conservative with optical components.
Pat |
