Ibexx, thank you for your post. Here GSM hand phones are selling like hot fudge! The third generation is so far away, at least two to five years.
Maybe you have seen the latest growth data that just came out in France? The growth never looked so good. The same goes for other major industrial nations in Europe, UK, Germany, Italy, Holland, Belgium and Spain. So we have no recession, and that maybe good news for the US Equity market. All mr AG has to do is to put back some security in the US Equity market by cutting the rates and put the growth back, major financial institutes down here believe.
Now it is clear that if Feds don't move and in time, and US economy gets in trouble than we will follow.
I have read and heard major analysts (unlike US analysts they don't publish their analysis and work internally for the banks and brokerages.) They believe:
1. that the best policy at this time is NOT TOO SHORT! TOO LATE TO SHORT. If you own any of the stocks that you mentioned and can afford to keep, then be quite and wait, in three to six months your happy to have not sold them. Time to short the INTC was when it was at 70, 60, or 40, not now.
2. The leaders are Q-COM, INTC. CSCO. DELL, IBM, MSFT, ORL, SUNW; CPQ, TXN, HWP,etc. There will be no change in leadership. How can one believe that INTC or MSFT be replaced.
3. Latest data released on Friday by EC shows the GROWTH HAS NEVER LOOKED SO GOOD IN EC. No recession here, and that maybe good news for the US economy. All Mr. AG has to do is to put back some security in the US Equity markets by cutting the rates and put the growth back. It is also believed that you have no recession yet, or if so, it is a mild one. It can be overcome by reduction of the rates, and GRADUALLY. It is beleived that in March there will be 0.50 point and MAYBE another 0.50 before the March meeting!!!
4. Last but least, it is believed that most of the negative action in the US market is the work of big brokerages that by down grading are pushing the market further down hoping to bottom fish, knowing well that when the rates are cut, the growth will follow and they may never have such opportunity to buy stocks so dirt cheap in times to come.
Forgive my poor English but this is the best I can put these thoughts and I hope I have expressed them clearly.
Ibexx I wonder
1. When is the Bush is plan will be approved by the congress?
2. What are chances that Feds cut the rates next week? Is AG meeting with the congress on Monday?
Thanks
Yaacob |
