Sure, but you know what my point is: it is much more likely then not that, if this is a worst case scenario, we are reliving the bad markets of the late 60's into the 80's, and not the nikkei. If I am right, the nas will be in a trading range from 1800 to 5000 for a few years, and then perhaps, 4,000 to 10,000 for another 10 years. The overall return from 5000 will be awful, but the reurn off of the 40% drops COULD be great.
There were 3 ways to make money from 65-82: value folks bought and held at the bottoms in 1969, and 1974(and are STILL holding); others made a fortune in commodity markets; and the least reliable would have been buying and selling the trading ranges, which were immense. There were huge swings in 10 of the 16 years. You would have had numerous opportunities to have 100-300% runs on growth stocks in months, but you would have had to sell it all and then wait for the next big dip.
I think that is the script going forward. |
