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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: Gottfried who wrote (289)	2/25/2001 4:12:08 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (1) of 23153

Gottfried, RE: <<If yes, consider the semi equipment group. Stocks are still near their lows and in past cycles have grown 300 to 500% to the top of the cycle.>> As you know, this is my favorite sector and you are absolutely correct. The problem is that one of the reasons they grow so far from the bottom to the top is that they drop so low when upside visibility is lacking. I remember that in the fall of 98 they were so low that many of them were below cash value, let alone book value. What scares me about the sector now is that they do not appear to me to be low enough to be at a bottom for them and clearly are higher, at a relative basis, than many other tech sectors. It may be that many people have the same thought you voiced and are counting on a quick econ turn around. If it appears that will not occur, we may see those ultra low values again. Having said that, I will also say that I believe you are much more expert in this sector than I am. Ed

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