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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: cnyndwllr who wrote (294)2/25/2001 5:17:02 PM
From: Gottfried  Read Replies (1) of 23153
 
Ed, AMAT low was about 35 in Dec 2000. We had many discussions on the AMAT thread about the low to be expected and came up with high twenties. But that was in Dec and as you know when a stock is low there's always the fear it will go lower. Now it seems as if institutions have jumped the gun in expectation of improvement in orders. Before orders improve they'll get worse IMO. Several regulars on the AMAT thread trade the stock in the 40-50 range or short it. I just make the charts.

>What scares me about the sector now is that they do not appear to me to be low enough to be at a bottom for them and clearly are higher, at a relative basis, than many other tech sectors<

Yeah, that's what kept me from loading up in 1998, too. But at least you know how low they can go, so even if you buy here you can ride it out. Unlike XRX and LU, many of these companies are well run and the only problem is decreasing orders. They have no control over that - it's controlled by the trend of ww semiconductor sales. It WILL rise again.

Gottfried
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