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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures
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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1336)2/25/2001 5:33:06 PM
From: IndexTrader  Read Replies (2) of 12411
 
Hi chip,

That was a very thoughtful post re: Kondratieff Theory. Thank you. Your dad was fortunate to have been acquainted with Schumpeter.
When I posted the article I, in no way, meant to endorse the theories of gloom & doom so many K-wave theorists promote. In fact, if the LongWave does exist, I believe it already bottomed & we are experiencing the fallout from the transition at this time. The liquidationists think we have a long way to go... that we are sliding down the backside into Depression ala soup kitchens, stock market crashes, real estate deflation and massive unemployment. They are wrong & will be confounded as the new upwave brings world wide economic expansion and prosperity.

Further, I doubt that massive debt liquidation is necessary for the next upwave. Much of it will be monetized, to the dismay of the bears. The rest will be compensated for through demand. The next expansion will exceed everyones expectation, although it will initially proceed slowly & cause a lot of volatility in the equity market. It will proceed with a bias toward inflation. Perhaps gold may even do well.

That brings me back to wheat. IF there is a 60 year commodity cycle, it seems to have bottomed in 1999. If so, this should bode well for the grains.

I once heard, anecdotally, that Greenspan considers it one of his missions in life to do away with the deflationary phase of the K-Wave. I don't know if that has any truth to it, but it is interesting.
Thanks again for your thoughts.
Susan
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