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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: jim_p who wrote (309)2/25/2001 6:53:25 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Read Replies (2) of 23153
 
Rather than a stock contest I think we should limit it to guesses on the low for both the Dow and the Nasdaq along with where they'll close by the end of 2001 and why.

Much easier to track and no day-to-day work to do it. We could have everyone pick 1 stock for the year as well.

I'll say 8500 for the low for the Dow. Close at 8800.
Nasdaq I'll say 1650 (interday), close at 2000.

The next bullet for the Nasdaq to swallow will be that Intel is cutting Cap Ex. The 2nd bullet will be CSCO having a miss similar to NT or SUNW. The 3rd bullet will be realizing that the 2nd half is not going to be some V-shaped recovery.

We are oversold NT though. I could see a bounce from here as many of the big caps have made new lows. There's also the prospect of another interday Fed-rate hike. Add to that if I were short tech here I'd probably cover and wait for a mini-rally to short into. Ultimately though I see another wave of tax selling come this fall. Too many bought into the notion of buying and holding thru tech downturns. Many will finally throw in the towel.

While valuations on the DOW are more reasonable than tech, the DOW made the mistake of including some tech names of late.

Picking one stock for 2001 is very tough. I'd probably pick PNO (very small E&P). But given it's size I have very little of my own money in it.

Being a medium to short term trader I'm not very good at these long term contents since I'll probably change my mind about 50-100 times on where the market is heading by year's end.
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