how could sagawa be negative on the group and positive on lu, a large member of the group? no, as i recall he was negative on nt and positive on lu. they are alone in their space. while cien has a relatively broad coverage of optical components, they don't have the size to handle a multi-billion dollar contract with china or europe. jdsu only supplies components - and their major customer is nt. the only outfit that did (past tense) what nt does was lu: supply and help install entire national optical or wireless networks. now lu is busted. they can't finance even their daily operations without directly pledging assets against short term paper. didn't you read the papers last week? it was touch and go whether they could sell short term paper!!
now they can't finance a giant network. nt is alone in the field. what's happened to nt has happened to the world economy. what happened lu is intrinsic to lu. the economy and nt will come back. and when they do lu won't be in the game UNLESS the entire top management and board of lu is replaced. think about it: if you were a major carrier or a nation, which would you use, the guys that supplied 75% of the US backbone and 70% of the Pan European backbone, and 52% of worldwide dwdm; the guys that have all the experience supplying OC-192, or lu, which has minimal experience supplying these fields, and which has no financing capacity whatever? Sagawa didn't, and doesn't see any of this. yet it is all public knowledge. the ny times, wsj, forbes, barrons and ibd know this. and now i'm whispering it to you. |
