Glenn: What you detect is realism. Bill does not even know that there was a bubble. He can't admit it to himself -- why would he concede it to you or me or anybody else?? Nope, it is a correction, or the business cycle or morphing, or something. Look at the banner for the new economy thread:
"But the time is May, 2000. The Fed has been tightening interest rates for quite a while, long rates have backed up, and there is widespread fear and disillusionment among technology investors who have seen their favorite New Economy names halved or worse. Was it all a mania that has "ended badly"? or is this just another chilling, spectacular correction in the group similar to those that have come before? Who are the survivors, the true athletes that will lead from here?"
That was in May and he thought the bad times were ending -- when the Naz was at 3700! Well, it turns out it WAS a mania that "ended badly". But Bill will never admit that, even to himself. I know you think I am being personal, but think about why I was taken off the new economy thread. I quoted the then concensus growth figure of 20% for YAHOO -- that was the published number on the yahoo finance site! He insisted that it was "unfounded" and that their real growth rate was 50% and the 12 analysts would raise their estimates in the new year. Of course they dropped them to minus 20%... but never mind, Bill is the only one who cannot permit himself to believe it was all a mania that "ended badly". You want him to say "its over, I lost"? We can all see that it is over -- well almost all of us. |
