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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 94.04

+0.6%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Alex who wrote (64398)	2/26/2001 2:25:30 AM
From: PaulM	Read Replies (2) of 116764

LBMA: DERIVED GOLD LEASE RATES lbma.org.uk The above is all that matters. Hi there Alex. Actually been leaning toward the deflationary camp of late so I noticed your post. A massive debt overhang creates massive demand for dollars. That's where we are today. Without that, no amount of cb maniuplation could bring gold where it is today. (In the 70's the CBs and IMF "demonetized" and sold gold all the way from $35 to 800). When OPEC curtailed oil in the 70's we were in a different stage in the debt cycle. The higher price resulting from the cut was more troublsome than the slow growth from the cut. Today its the effect on growth that's the problem. Also, take a look at monthly charts for copper and lumber and the other raw materials of our economy. They provide a different perspective. Also see Turkey. Indonesia etc. The energy shortages in the US are not strictly induced by excess dollars and inflation. They are structual problems caused by excess credit. As I see it the main problem is not that there is too much money, but too much credit, most of which goes in the wrong places. FWIW I think: (1) gold is going to $340+ short term; (2) it will then collapse one last time, though to alesser degree than stocks (they'll be crushed); and (3) after that, owning gold will be for the rich alone. We're in for one hell of a crisis. Good luck.

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