I am planning to buy even more of SUNW at the current prices pending the availability of my cash. In about a year (most likely much sooner) we all will have wished we had bought more of the stock at these prices. There are so many sales going on right now it is really not too difficult to buy anything now to gain at least 60%-100% in about a year from now. From SUNW, JDSU, to CSCO, NT, IFMX, ORCL, to... this is perhaps one of the golden opportunities of this century (if not the next)!
Good morning Addi, my friend. For the benefit of those who do not know either of us very well, you and I go back to the spring of 1997 when I joined SI. Secondly, anyone who knows you through your posts realizes that you are intelligent, articulate and a real gentlemen. You are also a very positive and upbeat person who I admire.
Now for the knife - ha, ha - you knew that was coming, didn't you.
I agree that SUNW at a price of 15-20 is probably a good value right now. By probably, I mean about a 60% probability that it is a good buy at this level. However, because of all the macro economic factors that I have stated here many times, there is about a 40% probability that SUNW will experience a price of 10-15 between now and late summer ... and it might stay at 10, 15 or 20 for a number of months or even much longer.
Why, Addi, do you believe all those positive things about what you think will happen in about 12 months?
I continue to believe that SUNW will be an excellent investment over the long term - but I would be very surprised if any of the best "large cap" U.S. technology stocks will be up significantly a year from now.
Obviously, I could be 100% wrong as I have been many times.
Almost everyone who is bullish for later 2000 or early 2001 bases their positiveness on the fast arriving cuts in interest rates, large increases in the money supply, tax cuts and the axiom, "don't fight the Fed."
My opinion is that millions and millions of investors will likely hang themselves with their hopes and wishes that all we have to do is wait for the Fed to save us.
It could be that no matter what the Fed does and no matter what tax cuts are passed, that it could take a year (even two or three years) for all the excesses to be wound out of the economy.
... and that likely possibility (my opinion, obviously) makes me very cautious - as I have been since January, 2000.
Disclaimer: The above is my personal opinion. I recommend that you do not base your investment decisions solely on any one person's views or analysis (including mine). Do your own research and take personal responsibility for your investment decisions.
Ken Wilson |
