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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: Kirk © who wrote (12381)2/26/2001 12:49:19 PM
From: sea_biscuit  Read Replies (2) of 42834
 
Looks like Brinker's in denial about the QQQ trade. His January newsletter talks about the CTR in the Nasdaq, and interestingly, gives the Naz levels of Jan 2 and the QQQ price after the close on Jan 3! Well, Jan 3 was the day when the index rallied 15%. That's a big difference.

Also, the vehicle of choice, QQQ has proven to be a disaster. Because even though the Nasdaq has declined, its decline has been considerably lower (down 25% from 3000) while the QQQ has declined over 40% in the same time period. The big-cap tech stocks are being taken to the backyard and shot much more than the smaller stocks in the Nasdaq.

It is better if Brinker admits that this was a mistake and starts looking for an exit strategy. There is almost no way that this trade can prove profitable -- unless Brinker's big-picture call of a bear market is wrong. And I think he is on a much better footing with regard to the longer-term big picture call than he is with this CTR call.

It is indeed sad that a man who called the top of the market so well has gotten entangled in attempting to profit from a bear market CTR. The only remedy is to admit the truth and move on. Otherwise, I fear that the more important call (MOABO) might get screwed up, and if that happens, it will be a total disaster.
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