so either consumption or population has to give... which horsemen do you expect?
Consumption of oil will give. When oil becomes more scarce then it is now and its price rises. This will encourage investment in greater efficency in oil use and also use of alternatives to oil.
Energy is certainly a key need: and will be until safe fusion becomes a reality
Even fission could make a great impact unfortunately it is politically unpopular so fission production is going down not up. This points out an optimistic assumption that I made which may not be true. In addition to assuming no world war, or asteroid strike I assumed no move away from the free market and no political decisions not to use a potential major source of energy.
However, you overlookthe point that although there is indeed enough land, food, and fresh water, for most if not all of the present planetary population - it is not distributed where needed, nor is it always usable.
There is enough land for a population much greater then the current one. Food production has been increasing faster then population growth for a long time, and with greater wealth and technological development it can continue to do so. Fresh water can be created if you have the energy that's why I said energy was the key problem not water.
But can the planet really support 1.2 billion Chinese, 1.1 billion Indians (not to mention the other 3 billion in developing nations) living at US standards?
Yes but it will take economic growth and technological advancement over a number of years. It also will take avoiding disasters such as world war, an astroid strike, a general move away from the free market, or anything else that will stop economic development and technological advancement.
Meanwhile, talking of the richer nations reducing pollution, nor does the current US administration show signs of being overly eager to lean towards the environmental lobby. Even when it's already committed to doing so, for example on CO2 emissions - remember the Kyoto Treaty? - those obligations are being ignored.
The Kyoto treat has never been ratified by congress.
Tim |
