Pat, I have a question for you regarding RHK. Some of the most optimistic forecasts for growth in the fiberoptic space have come from their research. As I believe you have previously stated, their figures have been revised upwards in the last several years on several occasions.
My question is can we trust that their numbers come without any untoward bias. Of course macro-economic events can certainly change estimates but that is not what I am trying to get at. From their webpage:
RHK is the leading industry market research and
consulting firm specializing in the analysis of
advanced technologies for the public
telecommunications network. The company provides
subscription services and custom consulting to
technology vendors, service providers, component suppliers and the investment
community.
RHK's unparalleled expertise stems from the knowledge base and contacts of its
industry experts and its disciplined market research methodology. Building on its
North American experience and international industry experts, RHK provides
telecommunications market analysis addressing North America, Europe, and other
international markets. RHK clients are provided with extensive market analysis,
forecasting, technology assessment, and profiles of vendors and service providers
in the public network space.
Is there any reason for them to be unduly optimistic? What has been your experience with them? Do they have any reason to behave in the shameless manner of the sell side analysts that have flogged the investing public? I think not, but would like to hear your response. Here is the link if anyone is interested.
rhk.com
The reason my curiosity was piqued was a comment Raymond Duray "So, when I look at the projections from RHK, Dell'Oro, Gartner et al, what I see is that they have all plugged in
growth curves that are unrealistic. The normal growth of any industry is an "S" curve and I believe that they have
the tail of the "S" out too far into the future more often than not. "
Thanks, Trip |
