stock dood, thats an interesting chart, because thats "expectations", which is different than consumer confidence, thats forward looking, rather than right now.
we have bearish divergences in the "expectations" chart versus the confidence chart, counting the 98 and 2000 tops, just as we had bearish divergences at the 87 top and the 77 top, going into the bear markets and recessions of 82 and 90.
bearish sentiment is a sign of a bottom, but how bearish, and how long the bearish trend,
bearish sentiment alone does not mean a market will turn, just as bullish sentiment alone does not mean a market will turn, bullish sentiment was at extremes from the 98 tops to the 2000 tops, with a 3 month interupption in 98.
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this is a chart linked by cybersavvy on another thread showing the 20% per annum 90 bull channel and the bubble.
20% per annum is an unsustainable trend in markets to infinity, i fully suspect that at some point the blow-out to the topside, will be compensated for by a blow-out to the downside of that channel, don't no when. |
