What do you guys think the Consumer Confidence number will be?
Probably lower than what is forecasted, IMO.
If it is very bad, will the market rally, hoping greeny will cut this week based on this number?
Well, if you look at his past statements after the first surprise rate cut, he mentioned erroding consumer confidence and the NAPM #'s, so you think that the market might rally a bit if both of those #'s are worse than expected. But who knows.
Also, do you think a surprise cut is already priced in yet? I believe a 75 cut at the meeting has
already been priced in.
Look at a daily Nasdaq chart and note the big spike on Jan 3 (the surprise rate cut). After correcting, the market starting pricing in the next rate cut. Notice the runup? Then, once the Fed actually did lower rates in late Jan, the selloff started. Now, even if the Fed does not have an inter-meeting rate cut, sooner or later they will start pricing this thing in, IMO. As far as a 75 bps cut being priced in, I disagree. A 75 bps cut at March meeting should have us priced to at least 2600-2800. If no inter-meeting rate cut this week, say hello to 1900-2000.
IMO, I think the Fed should wait until NAPM #'s are released later this week before deciding what to do with interest rates.
Whether they will or not really makes no difference at this point since I still feel that "something" is waiting out there for us to have capitulation day.
Good luck to all |
