Average depth is about 5,400 to 5,600 feet.
Now, totally ignoring the log normal distribution of drilling results, and ignoring offshore/GOM wells...
I think average drilling time for 5,400 is about 2 1/2 weeks.
(1,200 active rigs looking for gas) X (20 wells per rig per year) X (0.8 success rate (mostly infield/offsetts)
X (? mmcf/d average production per well) = Yearly new gas supply in mmcf/d
19,200 X (? mmcf/d average production per well) = Yearly new gas supply
If the average is 500 mmcf/d per well, then we get --- 9.6 Bcf/d (slight surplus)
If the average is 300 mmcf/d per well, then we get -- 5.76 Bcf/d (slight shortfall)
I don't know if there is enough 3-D seismic in inventory to keep up this drilling rate. IF you don't have seismic,
the success rate will fall and. More subtle - If you don't have LOTS of seismic data, you can't pick the bigger targets & skip the smaller ones, so the average flow per well will drop (because you are drilling smaller formations)
Bringing on more drill rigs will help somewhat, but will take 6 months to 3 years. The people who restore rigs are few and the are loaded up. Effectiveness of new crews is big issue.
Other 'fixes'
1. Coal bed methane (don't know if the water wells used to drill these get counted in rig numbers)
2. Arctic Canada, maybe Alaska (5-7 years out)
3. East Lost Hills
4. A lot more Deepwater Gulf of Mexico
5. Higher prices and conservation
6. LNG / liquids imports (2-5 years to build & permit new port facilities)
7. In California only - magic ritual for Energy Fairy |
