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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: timers who wrote (72365)2/27/2001 1:47:21 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
no, i basically agree...indeed some people entertain the theory that money leaving the stock market is now beginning to push up goods and services prices, however i don't buy that particular argument. i do believe though that already inflating commodities, and commodities that seem to have turned the corner and suffer from supply problems due to years of under-investment will continue to attract money...just as e.g. Bugos surmises. so we may very well experience continued raw materials price inflation combined with deflation just about everywhere else.
seems to me that services are also enjoying a brief inflationary cycle uptick, judging from anecdotal evidence (prices for movie, sports and Disneyland tickets come to mind)...but that will stop once the economic downturn cuts deeper.

where supply is an issue (the metals, energy, cocoa, sugar...) i'm confident prices have room to rise...certainly Greenspud is printing more than enough moolah.

BUT...note that at some point, usually a few years after a bubble in financial assets enters the eternal hunting grounds, money supply tends to begin to shrink of its own accord...as defaults mount, and lenders freeze their lending.
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