Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 301.11

+6.9%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Berk who wrote (42780)	2/27/2001 3:56:50 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) of 70976

No, I don't think so. I think AMAT is becoming the Gorilla of semi-equip. They will come out of this downturn with the only end-to-end solution. Tools for 300mm (compared to 200mm) are going to have to be tightly integrated, and that's easier to do from one vendor. Service and R&D is steadily shifting from the semis to the semi-equips. And all of this favors the bigger company. I think AMAT is doing what CSCO did in network equip: serially invading the various niches, and overwhelming the niche players one by one. The only way NVLS will be able to compete is if they merge with a couple of other semi-equips, to create another company with an end-to-end solution. So, I'm going with the leader. In addition, I think this question is not that interesting. The most important question, for investing in this industry, is knowing where you are in the cycle. Picking among the various companies is of secondary importance. Any of the semi-equips are excellent investments if you buy at the bottom of the cycle. And all of them are poor investments if you buy at the peak of the cycle. So that's what I'm spending my time trying to figure out.

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