John, I've lost money with Bernie's Option Advisor.
Now, maybe I'm just subject to market conditions and bad luck, but here is my personal experience (FWIW).
I followed the picks in the monthly newsletter's Aggressive Portfolio for 10 months and had from 4 to 8 positions open at any given time. My original pot has dwindled down to 20% remaining. I usually traded one contract at a time, so commission costs took a significant toll.
Early on, I too asked about their track record. Here are the numbers they faxed me (I've only included the ones for the aggressive portfolio):
Year Gain [Loss]
1990 28.9%
1991 15.3%
1992 14.0%
1993 45.3%
1994 [38.9%]
1995 40.9%
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Compounded total return (1990-1995): +111.9%
As I calculate it, this works out to 13.3% APR. But it ***EXCLUDES TRANSACTION COSTS ***. I do better than that investing in mutual funds.
On the positive side, the training materials that came with the initial subscription are excellent, particularly the audio tape. It really rev'ed me up ready to make big profits (which I didn't). But I did learn some very valuable lessons from it which I now use conscientiously to do equity investing:
1. Set a target profit (a sell limit)
2. Establish a closeout date at time of purchase (in case the investment doesn't pan out).
3. Examine certain sentiment parameters
4. Evaluate the chart.
On the negative side, I think the Option Advisor recommendations are given second-string treatment. The literature claims they will target 100% to 200% profits, but in all cases the actual targets have been 100%. First string treatment is given to Bernie's various premier services, where he will fax you recommendations for immediate trades, providing fast and timely turn-around time. The profit targets are much higher. I get solicited for these services once or twice a month. They invariably cost about $1500/year. No thank you Bernie, if I can't make money on the Option Advisor recommendations, I'm not going to try higher-priced recommendations.
I do still subscribe to the OA because its option recommendations sometimes are good starting points for researching short-term long trades. For those interested in the cost, the initial subscription was $79 the first year, with $129 each year thereafter, except that if you wait about 10 months before renewing, they may offer the special get-two-years-for-$99, which is what I took.
Bernie's web site (Investment Research Institute) is at:
options-iri.com
Good luck to all,
-Fred |
