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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: tejek who wrote (133711)2/27/2001 11:47:34 PM
From: kash johal  Read Replies (2) of 1570931
 
Ted,

re: double ordering

Yup!!

Happens all the time in a shortage situation.

The problem is that fab capacity has a lead-time of 2-3 yrs to bring on line from the word go. But when it comes on it comes on in huge incremental steps.

The foundries are going to be in a world of hurt with excess capacity. And there are 3-4 12" fabs coming on line.

IMHO the sh*t hasn't hit the fan yet.

AMD is very vulnerable on flash.

I suspect flash will be in serious oversupply in Q2.

Considering flash is 40% of AMD's profits - things could get a whole lot uglier.

regards,

Kash
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