Tom,
<< Why so irate with Dr. J's comments? >>
I consider it most unfortunate, but Dr. Jacobs comments to a Financial Times journalist most certainly did not help QUALCOMM's cause. I cringed when I saw the FT article, Thursday evening and I think we were very fortunate to catch a Morgan Stanley upgrade on Friday afternoon while the Nasdaq was turning positive.
What I think is most unfortunate is that until that article was published, QUALCOMM appeared to be making a very positive impression in Europe.
QUALCOMM had a very expanded presence at the GSM World Congress this year. The 1xEV live demonstrations had to be positively received. The GSM newsreel clip of Dr. Jacobs demonstrating 1xEV was excellent. Clint McClellan's speech at the Congress was reported in a positive fashion. We had a positive press release for the MSM6000.
Obviously, however, we are playing in a sector that is plagued by uncertainty and doubt, and any remarks by a man of Dr. Jacobs stature that add to that uncertainty and doubt are likely to negatively affect the valuation of QUALCOMM stock, particularly since QUALCOMM's future growth is intimately tied to the success of the various modes of CDMA.
They did.
We open today with QCOM 5 points above its 52 week low.
While it is positive to hear that QUALCOMM is going to step up marketing and technical support in Europe, something they perhaps should have done after the conclusion of the Newbury trials in 1997, Dr. Jacobs did not make their job any easier.
It has amazed me that QUALCOMM's stock held up as well as it did through mid February while the rest of the sector was getting hammered. I am not sure that it is going to be easy to regain momentum even though we are getting positive news out of China, and soon should have some success stories out of Korea.
Dr. Jacobs remarks to FT were made at the wrong time, in the wrong way, in the wrong venue, IMO.
<< For anyone waiting and waiting for the first implementation of CDMA it really did take a long time to get the bugs out of the system. >>
It did.
If a European carrier champion emerged tomorrow for 1xEV, cross modal standards were completed, and the technology commercialized quickly for operation in a GSM/MAP environment, 1xEV would face the same challenges faced by W-CDMA. in terms of stabilizing and working through the challenges of interoperability, and achieving "commercial viability". That is simply the practical reality of implementing a new technology in a wireless environment sharply focused on interoperability.
<< If you are mad though that he didn't have a concrete announcement of a company clearly interested in using 1x-evdo on current spectrum, then I can agree. >>
Not at all. I did not expect such an announcement. No need to telegraph a qualified prospect or prospects if indeed we have them ... and I hope we do.
If indeed there is a prospect ... and if that prospect is considering an implementing in current spectrum, there are regulatory hurdles to clear. ETSI no longer controls GSM standards, but they do reign on wireless regulatory matters within the EU. Statesmanship, and diplomacy become the order of the day. I suspect a few ETSI members cringed when they read the article. Some may view that as positive. I do not.
I think the interview and the resulting article tarnished what could otherwise have been a good QUALCOMM week. I wish Dr. Jacobs had gotten off the Continent before expounding.
- Eric - |
