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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here
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To: MikeM54321 who wrote (10604)2/28/2001 12:19:54 PM
From: Raymond Duray  Read Replies (1) of 12823
 
Mike,

Re: Packet voice

Frank has covered the tech side of the equation quite well, so I'll have no comment on that.

You say: I don't get it?? .....Maybe holding onto packet voice rollouts is simply a pipe dream?
No, you got it. Remember 1999, when the word was that the fiber optic component guys couldn't fill orders and would grow by 100% PA until 2004. This was your "analysts". What is JDSU offering for the next little while? Opacity as opposed to "visibility" (my nominee for the dumbest cliche of the year) and 10% growth in a quarter near you.

If you haven't absorbed the lesson about the touts and their "projections", then you are lost. But, judging from your post, I see you are coming around.

The real future of voice telephony is wireless. It is not packet. The only country that is close to having the landline infrastructure for packet to have any sizable penetration is the US. And if it were to happen, it would further cannibalize and degrade the landline PSTN. Which would only drive more and more customers to wireless.
Packet will be a niche market. I can see the day when a consumer or purchasing manager would be browsing a web based catalog, have a question and click on the "live operator" link and start talking about whatever question was raised by the screen info. But as far as the local or LD telephony market is concerned, I'm starting to see some very attractive ads for wireless fixed rate packages that include generous LD minutes. This was the justification for developing VoIP, i.e. cheap LD. Now that you can conveniently do it with a wireless handset, why in the world would anyone do it tied to a PC?

Ray
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