Globalstar, Iridium, Spaceway at DLJ Analyst's Meeting - NYC
Threadsters,
DLJ Wireless & Satellite Conference --- very comprehensive meeting for
Street analysts held today in NYC.
Key points from my scrawled raw notes:
Globalstar, Nicholas Moren, VP & Treasurer;
Loral: Bernard Schwartz, Chair and CEO:
Service to begin late 1998.
Per minute, 47 cents wholesale to local service providers.
Landing rights established in 104 countries, 85% of plan.
44 sats.
GPS-like feature built in (used for eastablishing position for callback to
handheld)
Qualcom on track for software by end of year.
Each handhled sees several satellites.
Power output and bandwidth dynamically changable to link quality.
HH switches between cellular where available, and sat.
Bent pipe: HH to sat to gateway to PSTN
Schwartz: Affirms economics of geo satcoms:
52 xponders
~1.9 million year each
= $100 million/year revenue
15 year lifetime = $1.5 billion lifetime revenue per sat
Build and Launch: $250 million
Per year ops: $10 million
Total Cost: $400 million
Profit: > $1 billion
Nice business, good margins, demand building, "not a commodity."
Schwartz: States scarcity of LEO systems (all of them) will not be for customers.... but for launch services.
Iridium, Robert Kinsie, Chair and CEO:
(Amidst road show, so had to exercise some restraint..)
Envisions itself as "First Global Wireless Telco"
"Like cellular base station in orbit"
HH switches between cellular where available, and sat.
"Terrestrial Cassette" allows terrestrial cellular complaince with all
global standards (AMPS, GSM, CDMA, TDMA)
16 countries in consortia, $2 billion invested.
66 satellites --- (no plans to change name to Dysprosium :-)
Universal service: satellite and cellular
Satellite: global hh wireless
City: WW Terrestrial Cassette
Pager: 200 times power factor, penetrates buildings.
All hops are space to space.
4x reduncacy.
Switching intelligence in each bird.
Pays incoming call settlements to respective PTT (incentive).
First 5 sats were launched 5 May, have transitioned from elliptical to
citcular orbit; performance exceeds expectations.
7 more birds to be launched at Baikanour (Kazakhstan)
via Proton in 2 weeks.
5 more via Delta in August.
7 more via Proton in August.
etc.
Commercial service third Q 1998.
ICO, Olof Lundberg, CEO:
Very goofy.
Weak presenatation fo words.
Not global: Emphasis on exactly those parts of the planet that are
saturated with cellular and wireline.
Quote: "Our investors are our biggest strength."
'nuff said:
Might as well have said, "Your problem is our solution" :-)
AMC, Gary Parsons, Pres and CEO:
Very good presentation of difficult business.
Very different premise:
Business-to-business dispatch.
Not global.
Not to compete with LEO.
Not "cellular gap filler."
"Not development stage w/losses --- operational now."
Fixing glitchy original business model.
$ in place.
Sats stabilized.
Expenses under control.
Shift from consumer to business only.
25000 subs, adding 100 per month.
$45 million revenue proj 1997.
One of 2 winning bids for DARS (Digital Audio Radio Svc)
Hughes Spaceway, Ed Fitzpatrick, VP:
Data only FSS.
Breaks from transponder model.
Fixed satellite service (not mobile).
Bandwidth on demand, VPN.
Four service offerings:
1. R/O - Receive Only - 108 MB/s down, phone line up.
2. "Standard Service" - 108 Rx, 384 KB/s TX, 20: dish.
3. "Enhanced" - 108 MB/s Rx, 1.5 MB/s TX, 48" dish.
4. "Broadcast" - 108 MB/s Rx, 6 MB/s TX, 8 foot dish.
Full mesh configuration.
On-board routing & processing: "Switchboard in the sky."
Multiple (about 25?) spotbeams on Conus, vast freq reuse.
Very high G/T and EIRP.
Teledesic, Russel Daggart, Pres:
... very smart speaker who unfortunately came off as achingly pedantic, like a Roman Senator. (Had to leave 10 mins into his 20.... maybe he saved any and all meat for the end? <G>)
Overall, IMO:
Hughes made several presentations (Panamsat, DirecTV, Spaceway, and lunch
speaker, C. Michael Armstrong, Chair and CEO) and came off very focused
each time. Quite impressed.
Iridium --- of which I've long been a skeptic --- came off as being far
more solid than I'd have bet.
Still have a problem with their use of Periodic Table element #77 name,
Iridium, for revised 66 bird constellation; also suggest they change the
number to 65 or 67 --- even if they launch a lunch box --- considering what
fundamentalists may have to say about the number 66. :-)
Other presenters:
Echostar: (man of the day ;-) Charlie Ergen, Chair and CEO
DirecTV: Eddy Hartenstein, Pres,
USSV: Stanley Hubbard, Pres and CEO
(latter two, esseentially in cahoots, cohabiting same bird)
TCI - No Show
Sky Entertainment (Newscorp) Latin America: David Evansm CEO
Galaxy Lating America (Hughes): Kevin McGrath, Chair
PanAmSat: Fred Landman, Pres and CEO
APT Satellite (Singapore): He Ke Rang, Vice Chair & Pres
Asia Satellite Telecommunications: Peter Jackson, CEO
Comsat Corp: Better Alewine, Pres & CEO
Loral Space & Comm Ltd: Bernard Schwartz, Chair and CEO
Highes Electronics: Michael Armstrong, Chair and CEO
Globalstar Telecommunications: Micael Moren, VP & Treas
Iridium, LLC: Robert Kirsie, Chair & CEO
Pasifik [sic] Satelit [sic] Nusantara: Adi Adiwaso, Pres and CEO
ICO Global Comms: Olof Landsberg, Pres & CEO
American Mobile Satellite: Gary Parsons, Pres & CEO
Highes Communications/SPACEWAY: Edward Fitzpatrick, VP
Teledesic: Russel Daggart, Pres
The 150-200 Wall Street analysts were most largely clueless. Men's room
talk and banter at lunch are most often a valid indication. The men's room
--- a VERY nice men's room, at the Waldorf --- was where the only
pay phones and much of the action, could be found. (Cellular phones didn't
work inside :-))) hehehehe!
Got a pretty good picture --- happy to answer any questions.
bye,
/k1b0
....shift happens... |
