Rillinois:
RE: "BTW, the time to have admitted his mistake and cut his losses was early on (in the CTR2 QQQ Trade) and not now"
Having experienced "the wrong road" related to the CTR1 mental "$84 Stop Market Loss", I can understand why he was reluctant to repeat that experience last fall. Of course with the benefit of hindsight, the financial well being of those in the trade would have been better off had he done so.
In objectively thinking about the situation, I think it's important to put yourself in Bob's shoes back then with only the information that was available in that time frame at your disposal, the history of success in applying the market internals methodology, and the experience of CTR1. Remember that the second leg of the NASDAQ plunge was basically a market tantrum in reaction to Greenspan's failure to make the first move to lower interest rates at the late December FOMC Meeting. As of last night, we were 8% lower than the Dec 20 NASDAQ closing low. Given the 1.6 beta of the NASDAQ, 8% down on the NASDAQ is approximately equivalent to 5% down on the S&P500 which I'd say is still within the range of a marginal new low.
IMHO, Bob took the wrong road last Spring when he initially bi-furcated his advice. It was then that he thought he could use previously successful market internals methodologies to scalp short-term profits against the overall market trend during counter-trend rallies. We can all now see that this methodology does not always work well going against the overall market trend. I think the old Wall Street saying applies here - "You can be a bull, you can be a bear, but you should never be a pig". And scalping short-term profits against the overall market trend could amount to trying to be a pig. Probably only the most skilled trader is capable of doing this successfully.
IMO, neither short-term trade has worked well. That being the case, those who are in the latest trade are all, more or less, in the same boat (ie. submarine - glug glug glug). So keep pulling for that counter-trend rally to start and take us back up the the NAZ 3000 area so we can just end this agony.
It's a total waist of time bitching, moaning, and blaming 24/7. If, as a result of these short term trades, you feel Bob's advice is worthless, then act accordingly and move on to another newsletter or advisor - Bob isn't likely to go away because of complaints and isn't likely to kiss the toes of the complainers to beg forgiveness for the sins he is perceived to have committed.
Also, I would not expect a special bulletin telling subscribers to bail on weakness. Bob has always stated he believes in selling into strength, now weakness. The best hope is that Bob is right about expecting a CTR at some point in here and that Ned Rosencranz is right about that rally taking the NAZ to the 3000 area.
FWIW,
P |
