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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 683.38+0.1%Nov 12 4:00 PM EST
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To: el paradisio who wrote (70948)3/1/2001 8:47:02 PM
From: Doug  Read Replies (2) of 99985
 
EL: I am in the same " Slow recovery " camp. Many fail to realize that in the business world I.T is valued solely on its ability to improve productivity and income. In the Consumer world convenience is more important .

In the last 10 years the no of I.T workers increased exponentially. Each profession invents its own lingo and codes partly to ensure their own distinctness and survivability. Todate , no other profession has generated more protocols and standards in such a short period of time. Its the equivalent of updating a light circuit every 12 mths and requiring you to buy a new meter, lights fuses and wiring.

In communications we have had over 1500 network protocols. Then we have another 100 languages and an infinite
number of Objects and methods. In hardware the number of gates exceeds 1.2 M for every human. All this was done in the name of productivity. Then with Y2k , I.T expenditure took off because Corporate America was held to a ransom. If Air travel required 1500 protocols and allowed 100 languages , air fares would be very different.

Now with the implosion of the Tech bubble, I expect to see three important developments. Corporations will be more exacting in their cost valuation studies and standardization before they embark on updating their I.T systems.. Secondly, The I.T industry will have to consolidate their standards and make obsolete many of the older protocols and languages. Lastly the ratio of GDP/ I.T workers has to improve .

All this is going to take time. I hope that this will be a wake up call to the sector.
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