Conference call notes.
Q3 preliminary results:
As late as last Friday, still confident about the quarter.
On Wednesday, concluded that too many deferred deals
would make ORCL miss the Q. Pushing out IT expenditures
due to weak economy. Nevertheless, grew internet applications 50%. Still, in a very difficult economy,
delivered improved margins and income. As long as economy
doesn't get worse, we think we'll do fine. E-business
software allowed to improve margins and income. But still
disapointed on the preliminary estimates.
Q&A:
Database weakness, anymore granularity? Two things:
weakness all in US, and had to compare to strong Q last
year due to dot coms. Appears to be economic factors:
people pushing out as long as possible. Bunch of deals
were already approved at mid level, but once got to the
CEO, they were pushed off. So many very nervous executives
prefer to wait and slow to act... Not competitive losses.
Referring to North America territory: US headquartered
companies. Good growth in Europe and Asia. All of the
short fall was in the US. Concerning applications that
are beginning to get in the game, why so sensitive?
Didn't make difference whether it was database or
application deal. Just a good deal of uncertainty. What is
your guess about trajectory of slowdown? Are we still
sinking? I can't predict the economy... some of these
transactions can't be deferred for very long. However others
can be deferred longer. Don't think application growth
will be less than 50% but don't know for sure.
were you counting on more than normal in the 3rd month?
What threw us off was February: we were well ahead of our
numbers at the end of January... only saw it in our
business these last few days. Notice anything by industry?
Telecom was weak. Suite strategy? Still doing very well.
But just don't want to do it right now. Think several
large transactions in Q4, but nervousness out there.
Cost actions? we're continuing our approach of improving
margins even in a very difficult environment.
Sense on big companies vs small delaying? across the board.
Sense that IT budgets for year are being slashed? Think
it's a wait and see... uncertainty... Haven't seen any
decision to cut IT spending for full year. People want to
put it in, but they're nervous.
think 9i can be a positive catalyst? it's a big positive.
Customers are commited to database but want to wait.
Seeing alienation of PSFT or others now with suite? no
change in that for several years. Been true for several
year. Siebel and PSFT don't like us for a long time. That's
not what's going on! Deal timeframe? Some going very
quickly, 30 days, but CEOs waiting. ---MAYBE GREENSPAN IS
NOT CONCERNED, but CEOs are worried!! (jab...)
extent seeing deferrals, May Q big quarter, think big
quarter will be very affected? Our seasonality layered on
top of economy. Don't expect long pushouts, customers will
have to buy at some point. But we have less visibility now
than usual.
any changes to pipeline? pipeline has alot of big and small
deals that were just deferred. They're still there,
deferrals, not competitive deals that were lost. Pipeline
building? looks normal, but just don't know for sure... |
