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Technology Stocks : Novellus
NVLS 2.400+2.1%Jul 24 5:00 PM EST
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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (3199)3/1/2001 9:58:02 PM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (2) of 3813
 
Brian,

Which Math is correct???? Column 1 calls for Q4 orders
to be close to double Q1 orders and near a $2B runrate.

Even Column 2 calls for Q4 orders to approach $400m
and a $1.6B runrate.

One thing that surprised me was the $43M of cancelled
orders probably resulting primarily from the pushout of
1 200mm fab and 1 300mm fab.

This seems to imply that NVLS gets less than $25M
business per fab. Yet PRIA is expecting about $75M
to $100M business per 300mm fab: 3 to 4 times as
much as NVLS. And PRIA has a larger market share
for its niche than NVLS does for its products.

I must be missing something????? This doesn't seem
logical. Can you or anyone else shed some light?

Thanks
Ian.


            $43M CANCELLED ORDERS
              INCLUDED    EXCLUDED
Q1          $240M             283M
Q2FLAT    240M             283M
Q3&Q4      820M            734M

TOTAL     $1.3B             1.3B
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