TI calls wireless handset slowdown
a hiccup
By Patrick Mannion
EE Times
(03/01/01, 5:41 p.m. EST)
DALLAS — The stymied growth of the wireless
handset market is a temporary phenomena,
according to Texas Instruments Inc., which said its
Open Multimedia Applications Platform (OMAP)
dual-processor architecture is poised at the ready
when the wireless wave crests again. Until then, TI
will focus on broadband delivery, where it sees
potential in the growth of DSL rather than cable.
TI is actively pursuing both the access gateway
and the infrastructure gateway for broadband
delivery, and said it doesn't believe cable has as
many ports as DSL. In addition, "the breakup of
AT&T will slow the rollout of cable services, for one
main reason: AT&T was the main backer of cable
access to allow it to defend against competitors by
giving it an alternate access method," said TI's Joe
Crufi. "The split-up reduces that drive," and will impact multiple
service operators, who want to provide bundled services, he said.
The much-discussed voice-over-packet service to the home must first
eliminate some infrastructure issues, Crufi said. "When it comes down
to it, there's quite a bit of work to be done on the backbone and in
PBXs to get it to work," he said. "Once that's resolved, then work can
begin on the enterprise and home access points."
Though many see the downturn in the wireless handset market as an
ominous sign, Gilles Delfassey said it's nothing but a hiccup. "It's a
shakeout, and to believe anything else is plain shortsighted," he said.
TI is coming off a run in annual wireless revenue growth of roughly 28
percent from 1996 to 2000, increasing from $502 million to $2.3 billion
over that span.
But stating he was not oblivious to the problem at hand, Delfassey
pointed to figures showing slower growth rates (except in China), a
replacement rate paused at 45 percent, the lateness of general
packet radio service (GPRS) and delays in the introduction of new
handsets. He blamed the latter two points on the disappointing
performance of WAP. "Users see no compelling reason to upgrade and
that has slowed growth considerably," Delfassey said.
Missing ingredient
The move to 3G has also been slowed by the lack of a killer
application, said executive vice president Rich Templeton. "No one
knows what that is yet, but when you have fast data available
anytime, anywhere, it's going to change everything," he said. The
worldwide consolidation of standards will also aid growth, Delfassey
said.
"GSM has 68 percent of the total worldwide subscribers, and with
cdma2000 having lost the battle to W-CDMA, GSM will be the
migration path to 3G," he said. Such a development would benefit TI,
which claims to have 70 percent of the GSM baseband market.
Whatever the standard, TI is offering its OMAP architecture as the
applications platform of choice. Already supported by Nokia, Ericsson,
Sony, Handspring and Sendo on the handset side, and by Microsoft,
Symbian and Sun on the operating system side, TI has also accrued a
slew of developers including PacketVideo, Real Networks, White Cell,
AuthenTec and Beatnik, a developer of streaming audio applications.
To help boost development, TI chairman and chief executive officer
Tom Engibous announced at the GSM World Congress last month that
TI would be initiating a $100 million investment program targeting
independent and third-party software developers. The goal of the
program is to encourage development of OMAP-based applications.
In addition, the company announced that the first standard-processor
implementation of its OMAP architecture, the OMAP1510, would be
used in the first 3G phones deployed in Japan.
Expected overlap
While some blame the impending deployment of 2.5G services for
pushing out 3G deployment, Delfassey said, "We always foresaw a
long overlap, but we don't care," he said. "We have devices for both."
Delfassey dispelled the significance of the absence of flash memory
from the OMAP architecture, in contrast to the intrinsic role of flash in
Intel's Personal Client Architecture. "Memory is not as important as
some would make it out to be," he said. "Though obviously necessary,
it's a commodity item and its role in maximizing system performance
and power consumption is not critical."
For the memory component of OMAP, TI is looking to partner with
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. on a stacked memory approach that
Delfassey says "is still in the feasibility stage." Other memory
partnerships are to be announced later this year.
Looking ahead, Delfassey said he foresees wireless services akin to
Japan's i-mode appearing later this year.
Having identified the growth potential of DSL, TI is engaged with four
of the top six DSLAM providers and four of the top 10 PC OEMs for the
deployment of broadband central office and customer premise
equipment. It is also working with ActionTec and Circuit City to take
DSL modems into retail channels. |
