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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: AllansAlias who wrote (74589)	3/2/2001 2:17:48 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (2) of 436258

What are your thoughts about the trendline holding? Do you still see a possible 800 point rally? I'm thinking at this point the FA overrides the TA. The warnings keep mounting and an early 2nd half recovery seems very unlikely and people are now beginning to realize that [not like it's a surprise to any of us here]. If they were bearish now, I'd see a decent bounce as a posibility. But they are more bullish than ever [ie, investors intelligence] meaning if they start to turn bearish there will be a lot of money that needs to leave the market. I see us bouncing off the '90 trendline a few times, but it will give soon. I don't see a bounce of more than 200 points as any kind of realistic scenario. When it gives, it may be the abyss or just more of the steady drainage we've been dealing with for some time. The rally IMHO, will be from whatever ST low we make, such as 1500-1700, back up to the trendline or so. That is if there's a rally that big. Stocks are still tremendously overvalued which makes a rally from these levels in this worsening economy seem all the more unlikely. JMHO

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