Advalorem: If I were you I would start the bottom fishing now!
According to my estimates, They should do about $609 million in revenue and about $.05 - .07 EPS. Well above analyst expectation. Additionally, since the revenues should surpass US$600 million, they will probably guide 4th quarter revenues upwards from the current $575-590mil to about $660-690mill.
According to my final sales channel check for the just completed 3rd Q ended Feb 28th, PALM shipped on average, 12,500 PALM Vx per online retailer. Last time I checked, they service 48 online retailers. I also checked their largest "brick and mortar" retailer, BEST BUY and can estimate they shipped BEST BUY about another 80,000 Units of the PALM Vx. So, if you just add PALM Vx and PALM VIIx's estimated shipments during the 3rd quarter, you get revenues from just those 2 models, of just over US$400 million. If you add sales from the Palm m100, IIIc and IIIxe, plus approximately $85M- 90m of sales from royalties, content&access and accessories, PALM should easily surpass sales of US$600M.
Now, As I mentioned before, the catalyst for a fast appreciating stock price is not only producing a quarter that BLOWS AWAY estimates, but also increase forward guidance in the 4th Q, which they probably will.
I can never pick a bottom for the stock.
I know I am not that good! But I continue to nibble down here because come March 27th, trading should really get interesting with this stock.
Regards
TOM |
