Listen: 1)I don't base my numbers based on the company's forward guidance because many factors that are un-anticipated could break the company's own projections. If companies can come out with warnings that their present quarter may be below expections then that is proof positive that even companies can under and over guide Wall Street---which they frequently do. 2) I also don't base my numbers on Wall Street analysts expectations because, analyst expectation are based on the company's guidance---that's like the blind leading the blind!
I base my expecations and projections on good old fashioned " kick the tires" research. Let me tell you, If you call up 50 BESTBUY stores and the PDA sales manager in each one tells you they got a shipment of 25 PALM Vxs withn the past 4 days, what does that tell you? You don't have to be a genius to find out BEST BUY alone got a shipment of 80,000 to 100,000 PALM Vx (there are over 4,000 stores!).
Additionally, If you have contacts with about 17 inventory managers at online retailers, who each tell you that they received orders of about 20,000 units of PALM Vx, and if you check online with 3 other online retailers that actually give you the number of units in stock of any one of their items, you will see why I came up with the numbers I published in the previous post. This is not Voodoo research, this is real fundamental research. If you want to believe Wall Street Consensus estimates and management guidance, you will NEVER participate in upside surprises or WORST, spot a downside SURPRISE before its announced.
Good luck. We will see how close or how far I came on March 27.
TOM |
