MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 676.41

+0.7%

4:00 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (71044)	3/2/2001 7:54:19 PM
From: jmootx	Read Replies (1) of 99985

This is more of an exhaustion type event Normally you are right about the Bull and Bear sentiment readings. Those were effective up to 1998, but then in the last phases of the bubble most remaining bears became exhausted and just gave up. Once the NASDAQ rose 84% in 1999, then the saying went--anyone bearish in the last year, two years, ten years---missed the entire event. Sentiment is bearish, just most of the prior exhaustion run up to NASDAQ 5000 is preventing most from announcing bearishness for the fear of looking stupid. The plunge in consumer confidence to four year lows is enough of a bearish signal to me. Lack of confidence in Greenspan is another bearish signal. Fund distributions are at the highest reading since the Asia crises. What will happen is there is the spook of technology and post Cold War earnings that will rebound---but not as strong and sustainable as before--this will lead to rallies. Then once reality sets in that GDP will remain low, the relief euphoria will squander. Then those bull/bear readings will be useful again. Even though the NASDAQ collapsed 59% in 1973-74, the press did not declare stocks 'dead' until 1978-1979. Then we had another strong rally from 1979-1980 before collapsing again. The reality is that we are setting up a multi-year trading range. Probably take NASDAQ 15 years or more to see 5000 again. And it may not---if you ask me, we won't see those levels under the present structure. This long bear will likely force mergers between economies and exchanges. The first natural fit would be London and NY, given London's refusal to adopt the Euro and they are still the #1 financial center worldwide.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next