I don't agree with Jay, and I happen to agree with you.
But here's some counter-intuitive thinking: IF ORCL has a stranglehold on the market, and the market eventually gets saturated (or is already), then ORCL has nowhere to grow.
I'm not advocating this train of thought, but it IS conceivable.
I mean, from a contrarian (and, in my opinion, silly) viewpoint....just how much software do all these companies really NEED?
I work for a biiiig software firm (but not ORCL), and here's the dirty secret of software - many people may not "need" new software, but they will need for whatever software they have to keep working and be supported. Herein lies the crux - software, for all practical purposes, is supported only for a couple of generations. For example, there are no new fixes available for Windows 95 - if you need a fix, you need to upgrade to Windows 98 or Win Me, even if you don't need anything extra they provide.
Also, even if the new software only marginally improves your bottom line (perhaps via slightly reduced support costs etc.), you will be forced to upgrade, because otherwise, your competitor will upgrade and turn the force of that marginal benefit against you.
This is why I think software, like the institution of marriage, is one of those businesses made in heaven - can't live with it, and can't live without it.
Milan |
