The world waits for 3G wireless
news.cnet.com
By Ben Charny
Special to CNET News.com
March 2, 2001, 11:50 a.m. PT
Just two weeks ago, Qualcomm Chief Executive Irwin Jacobs held
the elusive "3G" in his hands.
He was wandering the floor of the Cannes Film Festival using an
experimental modem to patch his handheld into a nearby bay station,
he told a group of investors at his company's annual meeting this week.
Video streamed onto his device. He surfed the Web and patched into a
private corporate network.
The billions of dollars spent so far in bandwidth licenses, infrastructure
construction and research and development has so far allowed Jacobs
to make the jump to the next generation of wireless devices. But when
do the rest of us get a crack at playing with the future?
The answers are about as clear as the alphabet soup of standards and
chipsets that many blame for the hype, as well as launch delays. Some
industry analysts say 3G, or third generation, arrives in May, but only in
a limited release in Japan. Others say it's already here, in South Korea.
And some say U.S. carriers Sprint and Verizon Wireless will introduce
Americans to 3G services by the end of this year.
"The carriers have spent a lot of money on licenses; the manufacturers
have spent a lot of money making handsets. Is there pressure to justify
that? Absolutely," said Peter Friedland, senior analyst for W.R.
Hambrecht.
When will 3G take hold? The question continues to nag, especially
after Jacobs himself last week implied that he was worried about the
launches of some of Qualcomm's and other companies' 3G products
getting delayed.
Financial analysts, no longer dazzled by the latest technology darlings,
have been wondering just how telecom companies will find a way to pay
off the $100 billion they paid for bandwidth licenses in Europe to
operate 3G networks and another $18 billion they paid in a recent
auction in the United States. Although the arrival of the technology
seems just around the corner, nearly every level of the wireless food
chain is under increasing pressure to deliver--or delay at their own
peril.
Product push or perish?
But there have been so many bumps to absorb to get to this point that
the market may have already taken out its pound of flesh in the form of
pummeling the stock values of the wireless players.
"To a certain degree, we may be near bottom," Friedland said.
U.S. carrier Verizon Communications is conducting trials of a 3G
network in Boston, and its chief executive has said in the past that the
company expects to launch the service for American consumers in
2002. But don't hold him to that, say some industry insiders. "It's tough
to say for America in general," one network equipment spokesman
said.
"There's tremendous pressure to have 3G come to market," said Perry
LaForge, executive director of the CDMA Development Group.
Qualcomm's CDMA is one of a number of technology standards that
have been developed to power the next generation of handheld devices.
"There's always been pressure there, " said Joe Barrett, a spokesman
for Nokia, the largest maker of wireless phones.
So where is 3G?
Qualcomm claims it's already here, in all its video streaming, short
messaging glory. The makers of the CDMA2000 chip, which some
standards bodies say is worthy enough to be considered third
generation, point out that South Korea Telecomm began offering
service to Samsung handsets outfitted with the Qualcomm chip last
year.
NTT DoCoMo is nearing its release of next-generation technology.
The Japanese telecommunications giant last week, amid concerns of
3G delays, reiterated its stance that it will launch its first
next-generation service to its customers in May.
But don't expect a huge launch, LaForge said.
"They'll stick a flag in the ground," he said. "It'll be more of a
declaration that we're here; we hit our deadline." |
